Chapter 1.Macro Economy
In July 2024, the U.S. economy demonstrated notable resilience. The labor market remained robust, showcasing strong job creation and low unemployment rates. The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious monetary policy, reflecting its ongoing efforts to manage inflationary pressures. However, there are indications that a rate cut might be on the horizon to stimulate economic growth further.
GDP
The preliminary estimate for the second quarter of 2024 shows that the real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.8%, significantly higher than the 1.4% growth in the first quarter. This increase was primarily driven by higher consumer spending, inventory investment, and business investment, although imports also rose.
CPI
As of June 2024, the annual inflation rate was 3.0%, slightly lower than May's 3.3%. Monthly data show that the CPI decreased by 0.1% in June, suggesting a slight decline in overall price levels. Energy prices increased by 1.0% year-over-year but decreased by 1.2% month-over-month. Food prices rose by 2.2% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month.
Labor Market
As of June 2024, the US unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, slightly higher than in previous months. In June 2024, 206,000 new non-farm jobs were added, indicating continued growth in the labor market.
Stock Market
In July 2024, the US stock market performed strongly, with major indices all posting gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Indexes all reached new highs, reflecting increased investor confidence in the economic outlook. A performance shift within the U.S. equity market extended into several weeks, with large caps trailing the previously lagging small-cap segment and growth equities underperforming the value style.
Chapter 2.Trading Data
# Market Overall Trading Volume and Daily Growth Rate
# Market Capital and Daily Growth Rate
# Top 50 Coins Ranked By 30-Day Total Trading Volume
# Heated New Listings
Chapter 3.Main Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin has recovered sharply from the intra-week lows, indicating a positive sentiment where dips are being purchased. Market analytics firm Santiment said in a X post that the ratio of positive comments to negative comments toward Bitcoin has reached its highest level since March 2023.
While the short-term traders are focusing on a new all-time high for Bitcoin, the long-term investors are projecting uber-bullish targets for Bitcoin. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, that Bitcoin’s market capitalization will probably overtake the total market capitalization of gold. Bitcoin’s market capitalization is roughly $1.3 trillion, while gold is between $15 trillion-$16 trillion.
Bitcoin’s bullishness did not rub off on Ether, which is down more than 7% this week. The negative sentiment in Ether is largely due to the net outflows of about $342 million from the Ether exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin price analysis
The bulls tried to push Bitcoin to $70,000 on July 27, but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($64,945) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to clear the hurdle at $70,000. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could reach the $72,000 to $73,777 resistance zone.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day simple moving average ($63,422). That could pull the price down to the psychological support at $60,000.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are finding it difficult to maintain the price above $68,500. The price has pulled back to the moving averages, which are likely to act as a strong support. If the price turns up from the moving averages, the bulls will make another attempt to drive the pair to $70,000.
Alternatively, if the price skids below the moving averages, it will suggest that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then plunge to $63,250 and later to $62,300.
Ether price analysis
Ether broke below the moving averages on July 24 and extended the slide on July 25, indicating that the bears are trying to form a lower high at $3,563.
The moving averages have started to turn down, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a minor advantage for the bears. If the current recovery falters at the moving averages, it will increase the possibility of a drop to $3,000.
Conversely, if buyers push the price above the moving averages, it will signal that lower levels continue to attract buyers. The ETH/USDT pair may climb to $3,563 and subsequently to the downtrend line.
Chapter 4.Industry Trends
ETH ETF
On July 23rd, EST, the first batch of Ether Spot ETFs were officially listed and traded in the U.S., with the first day's trading volume exceeding $1 billion.
Following the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF in January this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission SEC approved the S1 registration statement filing regarding the Ether Spot ETF to go into effect on the afternoon of July 22nd, local time, which is a big step for the digital asset to enter the mainstream U.S. financial market.
A total of eight asset managers were successful in their applications for the Ether Spot ETF, namely BlackRock's ishares, Grayscale Institutional, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, Bitwise, 21Shares, Fidelity, and Kingston. According to the offering documents, the commission charged by Franklin Templeton Ether Spot ETF is 0.19% of the transaction amount, the grayscale institutional fee is 2.5%, and the rest of the Ether ETFs have a commission of around 0.25%.
Cristiano Ventricelli, senior analyst for digital assets at Moody's Ratings, wrote in a report on Tuesday that the listing enhances the “legitimacy” of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. market, adding that crypto ETFs will help to improve market stability and reduce volatility.
The Bitcoin2024 conference
Former U.S. President Donald Trump appeared at the Bitcoin2024 conference to give a 30-minute personal speech. The crypto market had previously seen a large rally due to this rumor, and Trump's speech basically delivered on the market's expectations. The centerpiece of Trump's speech at the Bitcoin2024 conference was:
1. On his first day in office as president, he will fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and appoint a pro-bitcoin SEC chairman.
There will never be a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) during his presidency.
2. A (Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council) will be established within 100 days, which will contain transparent regulations and legislation to help the entire Crypto industry.
3. The U.S. will retain all Bitcoins seized by judicial action and create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
4. Make the U.S. the country with the lowest cost of electricity for Bitcoin mining.
5. Bitcoin's market capitalization will surpass that of gold in the future. Bitcoin's market capitalization has been increasing since its inception, and has become the ninth largest asset in the world by market capitalization, soon to surpass silver and in the future to surpass gold.
6. once again promised to commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
German government
On July 13, 2024, the German government completed the liquidation of all its Bitcoin holdings, concluding a significant market event that had been closely watched for over two weeks. During this process, the German government sold a total of 50,179 Bitcoins, earning $3.3 billion. The entire operation took 24 days to complete.
This large-scale sell-off had a substantial impact on the market. Initially, it caused short-term price fluctuations in the Bitcoin market, leading to a noticeable decline. However, the market demonstrated resilience and absorption capacity, as some investors and institutions took advantage of the lower prices to buy.
The German government's decision to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings at this time reflects its assessment of the current market environment. This action may influence the holding strategies of other governments, serving as a reference for whether they might follow suit.
Lastly, this event also impacted investor confidence. Some investors might question the long-term value of Bitcoin, leading to market sentiment volatility. Conversely, other investors might view this move as a release of negative pressure from the market, potentially leading to greater stability in the future.
