Chapter 1.Macro Economy
The U.S. economy in June 2024 displayed resilience in the face of persistent inflation and a widening trade deficit. The Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy stance reflects ongoing efforts to manage inflationary pressures. The labor market remains robust, and consumer spending is holding steady, though consumer confidence has been impacted by high prices for essential goods.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2024 increased by 3.3% year-over-year, slightly down from the previous value and expectations of 3.4%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 3.4% year-over-year, below the expected 3.5% and the previous value of 3.6%, marking the lowest level in over three years. The Federal Reserve maintained its high interest rates, citing ongoing inflation concerns and opting not to lower rates in the near future.
As the U.S. Federal Reserve considers whether to begin cutting interest rates later this year, the European Central Bank approved its first such reduction since 2019. Policymakers cited recent progress in reducing inflationary pressures as they approved a quarter-point rate cut affecting the 20 countries that use the euro currency.
Labor Market
The labor market in June 2024 demonstrated stability. The unemployment rate stood at 4.0% in May, reflecting a steady job market. Additionally, May’s jobs growth figure of 272,000 came in well above most economists’ forecasts for around 180,000 and wage growth also exceeded expectations, further complicating the outlook for a potential interest-rate cut this year.
Consumer Confidence and Spending
Consumer confidence experienced a decline due to elevated food and fuel prices. U.S. retail sales fell short of expectations in May, barely rising from the prior month’s figure. Sales rose 0.1% in May after recording a 0.2% decline in April. In contrast, sales rose 0.6% and 0.9% in March and February, respectively.
Market Trends
The stock market showed significant strength in June, driven largely by gains in technology and artificial intelligence stocks. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ nudged their record levels higher again, posting fractional gains and recording their eighth positive week out of the past nine.
Chapter 2.Trading Data
# Market Overall Trading Volume and Daily Growth Rate
# Market Capital and Daily Growth Rate
# Top 50 Coins Ranked By 30-Day Total Trading Volume
# Heated New Listings
Chapter 3.Main Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin has been consolidating inside a large range between $56,552 and $73,777 for several months, indicating buying near its support and selling close to the resistance. Generally, when the price takes a long time in consolidation, it needs a solid trigger to push the price above or below the range.
The bears tried to sink the price below the support on the news of the German Government selling their Bitcoin holdings and the likely selling pressure to be created by the Mt. Gox payout. However, that did not work out as lower levels attracted buyers who defended the support and are trying to start a recovery.
Monthly cryptocurrency market performance
Investors also seem to have used the recent weakness to start accumulating again. Data from SoSo Value shows $31 million in net inflows into the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds after almost $1.3 billion in outflows over the last two weeks.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin bulls have a battle on their hands as they try to prevent the bears from pulling the price below the pivotal support at $56,552.
The bears pulled the price below $60,000 on June 24, but the long tail on the candlestick shows buying at lower levels. Expect bulls to remain active in the $60,000 to $56,552 zone for the next few days because if they fail to protect the support, the BTC/USDT pair may plunge to $50,000.
The 20-day exponential moving average ($64,883) is the key resistance level to watch out for on the upside. A break and close above this level will suggest that the bears are losing their grip. The pair may then attempt a rally to $70,000.
Ether price analysis
Ether has been gradually slipping to the next significant support at $3,000. The bulls purchased the dip to $3,240 on June 24 but are struggling to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($3,506).
If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will make one more attempt to sink the price below $3,200. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair could plummet to the psychological level of $3,000. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $3,000 to $2,850 zone.
On the upside, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to signal that the selling pressure is reducing. That will clear the path for a possible upmove to $3,730.
Chapter 4.Industry Trends
ETH2.0 investigation
SEC dropped the ETH 2.0 investigation; on the one hand, on behalf of ETH is not a security; on the other hand, on behalf of the # ETH pledge mining is likely to be non-securities, then ETH spot ETFs post-buy pledge probability will not cause for the impediment, it is estimated that after the passage of the S-1/S-3 is brokerage firms will re-file spot ETFs for the pledge if it passes, it may be ETFs to exceed the spot volume opportunity.
SOL ETF
VanEck has filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Solana Trust, the "VanEck Solana Trust," which is expected to be approved for listing on the Cboe BZX Exchange. VanEck Digital Assets, LLC is the sponsor of the trust, and Delaware Trust Company is the trustee, which will hold all of the trust's SOLs on behalf of the trust. On the back of this, the SOLs briefly surpassed 150 USDT, an intraday gain of 9.53%.
Mt. Gox
According to official documents, the trustee of Mt. Gox is prepared to initiate the repayment process to cryptocurrency exchanges, including Kraken, Bitstamp, and BitGo, in accordance with the rehabilitation plan. The necessary information has been confirmed and exchanged with the relevant exchanges to ensure the security and compliance of the repayment process.
Mt. Gox has a total of 127,000 creditors, with Japanese users accounting for less than 1% of them. The trustee needs to repay these creditors with 142,000 BTC (currently valued at approximately $8.58 billion) and 143,000 BCH (valued at approximately $53.31 million). This repayment process marks a significant milestone in the platform's long-standing bankruptcy proceedings.
