Chapter 1.Macro Economy
In August 2024, the U.S. economy continued to show signs of recovery, but global market volatility and domestic challenges introduced new uncertainties. While overall economic momentum remained steady, financial markets experienced significant fluctuations, particularly in the foreign exchange sector. Below is an analysis of the key economic indicators and market dynamics for the month.
Labor Market
U.S. job creation decelerated for the third consecutive month, and the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in nearly three years. July's job gain of 114,000 fell short of expectations and was well below the 12-month average of 215,000. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, up from 4.1% in the previous month.
Inflation
Inflationary pressures continued to ease in August, with the year-over-year CPI growth rate slowing to 2.9%, down slightly from 3.0% in July. While energy and food prices remained volatile, overall price levels showed signs of stabilization. However, core inflation remained elevated. The Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy appeared to be having an effect, fueling growing market expectations of potential rate cuts in the coming months.
Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% in August. However, increasing signs point to a possible rate cut as early as September in response to growing risks of an economic slowdown and external market instability.
Stock Market
Despite ongoing challenges, U.S. equity markets rebounded strongly in August. After a period of significant deleveraging, markets surged, buoyed by positive U.S. macroeconomic data. Stocks were volatile earlier in the month but ended on a positive note, following a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
International Market Impact
The Bank of Japan's surprise rate hike and the Japanese government's intervention in the forex market triggered global market volatility. The sharp sell-off in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and other Asian markets reverberated across global markets, prompting investors to reassess their risk exposures.
Chapter 2.Trading Data
# Market Overall Trading Volume and Daily Growth Rate
# Market Capital and Daily Growth Rate
# Top 50 Coins Ranked By 30-Day Total Trading Volume
# Heated New Listings
Chapter 3.Main Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin is up more than 9% this week, indicating that the bulls are trying to push the price toward the resistance of the $55,724 to $73,777 range. According to data from SoSo Value, the United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed strong inflows of $252 million on Aug. 23, indicating solid buying by investors.
The latest surge in Bitcoin happened after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during his annual Jackson Hole symposium speech that interest rates were due to fall.
If Bitcoin does not give back a large part of its recent gains, the cryptocurrency sentiment is likely to improve further. That could boost buying in select altcoins, propelling them above their respective overhead resistance levels.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin pole vaulted above the 50-day simple moving average ($61,759) on Aug. 23, indicating that the bearish pressure was reducing.
The 20-day exponential moving average ($61,110) has started to turn up, and the relative strength index (RSI) has jumped into the positive zone, signaling that the bulls are on a comeback. Minor resistance is at $65,660, but if bulls overcome this barrier, the BTC/USDT pair may climb to $70,000.
The bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to pull the price back below the moving averages and trap the aggressive bulls. The pair may collapse to $57,787 and then to $55,724.
The pair’s up move is facing selling at $65,000 but the bulls will try to arrest the correction at the 20-EMA. If the price bounces off the 20-EMA and breaks above $65,000, it will improve the prospects of a rally above $65,660.
On the other hand, a break below the 20-EMA will signal hesitation among the bulls to buy the dips. That could pull the pair to the 50-day SMA. If this support cracks, it will suggest that the bulls have surrendered their advantage.
Ether price analysis
ETH has been squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($2,700) and the horizontal support at $2,500 for the past few days.
The failure to sink the price below $2,500 increases the likelihood of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair is expected to rally to $2,850, which is an important level to watch out for.
If the price turns down from $2,850 and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will signal a range formation in the near term. Buyers will have to propel the price above the 50-day SMA ($2,984) to suggest the start of a sustained recovery.
Chapter 4.Industry Trends
Telegram founder Pavel Durov arrested in France
On the evening of August 24th, local time, reports from French media stated that Pavel Durov, the founder and CEO of Telegram, was apprehended at a French airport by agents from the French National Anti-Fraud Office.
The detention of Durov followed a search warrant issued by France's Office for Fighting Child Sexual Exploitation (OFMIN), which holds authority solely within French territory. According to TF1, it was anticipated that Durov might appear before an investigating judge on Saturday night and potentially face charges on Sunday related to various offenses, including but not limited to terrorism, drug trafficking, conspiracy, fraud, money laundering, receipt of stolen goods, dissemination of child exploitation content, and potentially more.
SputnikInt reported that Pavel Durov, if convicted, could face a sentence of up to 20 years in a French prison. Concurrently, Russian State Duma Deputy Chairman Dvorkovich urged the Foreign Ministry to take action to secure Pavel Durov's release.
Following these developments, the market value of TON briefly decreased to 5.452 USDT, currently trading at 5.961 USDT, reflecting a 24-hour decline of nearly 11%. TON's Total Value Locked (TVL) experienced a daily reduction of 57.62%, currently standing at approximately $321 million. While the anticipated verdict for Pavel Durov may lead to short-term market fluctuations, it is imperative to understand that Telegram and TON are separate entities in the long term. Telegram functions as a centralized messaging application, while TON operates as a decentralized blockchain network. Although TON has gained users through its association with Telegram, Pavel Durov's arrest does not inherently imply the imminent closure of Telegram or substantial impairment to TON.
SunPump
SunPump operates as a platform for issuing MEMEs on the Tron blockchain, employing a Bonding Curve pricing mechanism similar to PumpFun. Developers can launch a MEME on SunPump for an initial cost of 20 TRX. Upon a MEME's total market capitalization reaching approximately $69,420, it automatically becomes listed on SunSwap, with $12,000 worth of TRX designated for providing liquidity support.
SunPump presents two primary advantages. Firstly, it holds the status of being Tron's official MEME launch platform, establishing a monopolistic position within the Tron ecosystem. Secondly, SunPump is backed by Justin Sun, contributing substantial resources to the platform. Collaborations with institutions such as Huobi and Poloniex for listing related MEMEs, along with Tron's $10 million MEME incentive program, exemplify this support. In contrast, PumpFun and MoonShot received limited support from major institutions or influential figures during their initial stages.
Based on the data from Dune reveals a notable upward trend in SunPump's total earnings from August 14th to 21st, particularly on August 20th and 21st, where earnings surged to 426,095 USDT and 562,685 USDT, respectively. This allowed SunPump to surpass PumpFun in earnings on those two days. In contrast, PumpFun's total earnings gradually declined, dropping from 780,351 USD on August 14th to 368,225 USD on August 21st, indicating a weakening market position. Overall, SunPump's launch has presented a short-term challenge to PumpFun's dominance in the MEME issuance space. The sustainability of this intense competition hinges on SunPump's ability to continue featuring popular MEMEs in the future.
Babylon
Babylon is poised to launch its self-custodial Bitcoin staking mainnet, marking the first phase of its progressive rollout.
As an innovative project, Babylon enhances the security of Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchains by allowing Bitcoin holders to earn yield by utilizing their idle BTC. This approach helps to strengthen the economic security of PoS chains and decentralized applications (dApps).
Babylon leverages three unique aspects of Bitcoin: its timestamping service, blockspace, and asset value. Through Babylon, Bitcoin holders can contribute to PoS security by locking up their BTC on the Bitcoin network. These locked assets then provide additional security to PoS ecosystems such as Cosmos, Polygon, and Bitcoin Layer 2s.
Babylon has built a strong ecosystem through strategic partnerships with leading blockchain projects. These collaborations extend beyond technology, rooted in a shared vision for a more secure and efficient decentralized future. Below are some of Babylon’s key partners and ecosystem components.
