Rainbow (RNBW)

not asking for too much from rainbow wallet team

come back to my entry…and we good 🤲 https://t.co/dW6GPqMNEH

➥ The TGE Wave No One Wants to Talk About

I think we’re in a silent TGE liquidation cycle and most people are still calling it launch season.

What we’re seeing in early 2026 feels like inventory clearance.

A lot of projects raising in 2021-2023 are finally forced to ship tokens now because time ran out.

I looked at recent TGEs and one pattern is impossible to ignore:

– Average wait from funding → TGE: ~35 months.
– Some waited almost 4 years.
– Most launched into weak liquidity + heavy unlock pressure.
– Market response: brutal.

Rainbow is the cleanest example, it raised in Feb 2022, TGE in Feb 2026 → nearly 48 months later.

Result:

– ICO buyers down ~65%.
– FDV collapsed from $100M → ~$32M.
– Distribution issues + market bloodbath accelerated sell pressure.
When the CEO says there was no better day for TGE than today while price nukes, that tells me everything.

→ Old backlog vs newer cycle projects

I see 2 clear cohorts now:

The 4-year backlog

– Aztec, Rainbow, similar infra / L2 bets.
– Raised at peak valuations.
– Waited for better markets.
– Eventually forced to launch anyway.

The compressed 2-year cycle:

– Zama, Warden, newer infra.
– Faster ship, faster TGE.
– Still struggling, but less delusion on valuation.

Even the fast ones are slow compared to normal tech startups, but crypto tolerated that… until liquidity disappeared.

→ Why this feels like liquidation.
Zoom out:

– Early-stage funding deals down ~64% vs 2022.
– New project pipeline is thin.
– Unlock calendars in 2026 are heavy.
– VCs are past year 3–4 and want exits.
– Teams are reaching runway limits.

So projects do the only thing left: issue the token, explain to investors, unlock, survive or fade.

In 2025 alone:

– ~$97B tokens unlocked.
– ~85% of TGEs trading below listing.
– Median performance -70%.

–Over half of all tokens launched since 2021 are now inactive.

→ My honest take for 2026.

I don’t treat TGEs as upside by default anymore.

– TGE ≠ catalyst
– TGE = supply event

I only care after launch:

Who is still building?

Who has real revenue / usage?

What does unlock pressure look like?

Does the token actually need to exist?

Most won’t survive this destocking phase. A few will come out leaner and real.

That’s probably healthy, but it’s going to hurt first.