Aave (AAVE)

The headlines surrounding $Aave haven't been the greatest lately, and we've seen that uncertainty reflected in the price action. Despite the negative sentiment, the recent bounce off the lows has started to improve the structure. Aave has now put in two higher lows and a higher high, which is exactly what you want to see if a trend reversal is beginning to take shape.

Right now, price is attempting to hold the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. To me, that suggests the possibility that we're currently forming a Wave 4 correction before a final Wave 5 move to the upside. This is a setup that I discussed on my livestream, and it's one that I'm continuing to monitor closely.

The challenge is that we've been consolidating around this level for some time now, which makes it a very important area. If you're considering entering this trade, understand that there is risk involved, and none of this should be considered financial advice.

A lot of what happens next may depend on Bitcoin. We need to see #Bitcoin continue showing strength and improving its overall market structure. Earlier this morning, I noticed a momentum break on the four-hour timeframe. More importantly, yesterday we saw a liquidity sweep. On the Binance chart, price traded down to approximately $62,348 before reversing. Once that liquidity was taken, buyers stepped in aggressively. I was fortunate enough to catch that trade, and I'm still holding the position.

For Bitcoin, the next objective is reclaiming the ascending channel—or bear flag, depending on how you interpret the structure. We need to see price move back above that level, regain acceptance within the range, and flip it into support for a stronger continuation to the upside.

The daily timeframe on Bitcoin still doesn't look particularly strong, which is why I remain cautious. In fact, it was the weakness on the four-hour chart that prompted me to open a short position earlier as a hedge. At this point, I'm balanced and waiting for the market to provide additional confirmation.

As for Aave, this is the setup I'm watching. If price breaks below the VWAP and takes out the prior swing low, then the bullish structure I'm tracking becomes invalidated. At that point, I would expect a deeper correction and begin looking for a move back toward the lows, potentially around the $54 area.

The problem is that there isn't much support between the current price and those lower levels, which makes this zone extremely important. We need to see buyers defend this area if we're going to get the bounce and continuation necessary to complete a Wave 5 advance.

If that Wave 5 does develop, there's also a possibility that what we're seeing now is only the beginning. Internally, this move could ultimately prove to be a larger Wave 1, which would suggest that Aave may have a much bigger opportunity ahead than most market participants currently realize.

INSIGHT: Securities lending generated a record $15.3 billion in revenue in 2025, and the agents who arrange those loans can take as much as 20 to 30% of it before the rest reaches the asset owner.

Aave argues its V4 architecture can move that market onchain and compress the agent's cut toward zero.