BitMEX Token (BMEX)

Two exchanges announced their exit this week.

Both opened with the same three words:

"strategic review"

🔴 The clean exit: BitMEX

→ Age : 11 years
→ Funds lost to hacks : $0
→ Proof of reserves : live
→ BMEX : down ~86%

🔵 The messy exit: BitMart

→ Age : 9 years
→ Funds lost to hacks : $196M
→ Proof of reserves : none
→ BMX : down ~58%

Same excuse. Opposite reality.
One closed the door. One left it jammed.

"Exchanges will be consolidated," Arthur Hayes predicted, and ultimately BitMEX became the first to realize it.

As many already know, BitMEX will cease operations on September 23.

The exchange that once represented the global cryptocurrency derivatives market is disappearing into the annals of history.

A brief overview of BitMEX:

Founded in 2014 by Arthur Hayes, Ben Delo, and Samuel Reed, BitMEX was instrumental in popularizing the perpetual futures market. At the time, perpetual futures—now offered by most exchanges—were an innovative product, and BitMEX was once among the world’s largest derivatives exchanges.

Arthur Hayes, in particular, has become widely known among crypto investors through his activity across various media.

However, the market does not allow perpetual winners.

BitMEX’s trading volume steadily declined, and its native token BMEX crashed 97% within a few hours after unstaking following the closure announcement.

In addition, past violations of anti‑money‑laundering regulations led to sanctions from U.S. authorities, ultimately resulting in the decision to shut down.

An interesting point is that…

Recently, Arthur Hayes forecasted, "The longer the bear market lasts, the more active M&A will be in the exchange industry, and smaller exchanges will disappear from the market."

His point was that declining volume sharply reduces fee revenue—the core profit driver for exchanges—pushing capital‑constrained exchanges out of the survival race.

That outlook first materialized at BitMEX, the exchange he co‑founded, rather than at a competitor.

Looking at the current situation,

the domestic market is not much different.

Recently, Dunamu, operator of Upbit, reported revenue down about 50% year‑over‑year.

Even the top domestic exchange could not escape the impact of reduced volume.

If Upbit experiences this, the pressure on smaller, lower‑volume exchanges is bound to be much greater.

BitMEX’s exit shows that the longer the bear market persists, the faster exchanges’ stamina weakens than expected.

With fee revenue shrinking, new users declining, and operating costs unchanged, this trend is likely to continue.

So where will this capital flow?

I expect some will concentrate into large global exchanges, while others may migrate to DEXs.

In particular, decentralized perpetual futures exchanges such as Hyperliquid, dYdX, and GMX have grown rapidly over the past few years.

Unlike centralized exchanges, allowing users to hold assets themselves is a clear advantage for investors concerned about exchange risk.

However, that does not mean DEXs are automatically the answer.

DEXs also cannot escape competition on liquidity, security, and execution quality.

Whether trades execute smoothly, large funds can be absorbed stably, and a sustainable profit model exists will determine future survival.

In the end, both centralized and decentralized exchanges have entered a “survival competition.”

BitMEX’s exit once again shows that even well‑known large exchanges are not permanent, regardless of whether they suffer a disaster like FTX, but are subject to market conditions.

Arthur Hayes said an era of exchange consolidation is coming.

Ironically, that change is starting from the end of the exchange he created.

Perhaps we are not only sifting coins in this bear market but also witnessing a turning point where the crypto exchange industry moves into a new generation.