This morning, I suddenly saw a preview of the Polymarket token on Coingecko. Could there be insider information?
Then I went to https://t.co/1qxv39CEnG and checked the token issuance probabilities on Opinion and 42. I was surprised to find that on Predict, the probability of issuance by the end of the year jumped from 40% to over 90% within ten days. I initially thought the Coingecko preview this morning caused the rise, but it actually surged inexplicably ten days ago.
Even more puzzling, Opinion still shows a 42% probability of issuance by year‑end, despite a sizable volume. Is this a misunderstanding on my part, or has the market cooled so much that no one is arbitraging such a clear spread? Where have the scientists' scripts and lobsters gone?
On 42, the volume is too small to hedge, and the implied issuance probability is only around 20‑30%.
What is actually going on?
