2024PUMP (PUMP)

Can you imagine? Nahhh... We are going to 20K https://t.co/I6qU1fyGWu

$PUMP / $USD - Update

One to keep an eye on guys .. https://t.co/mNZFQgidh0

Some thoughts on @Pumpfun and $PUMP:

1. They generated $74.3M in fees over the last 30 days. Annualized, that's ~$905M. They're trading at a mcap of $538M. The P/F ratio is 0.60x. You are paying 60 cents to own one dollar of annual fee generation. Revenue margin is 42.7%. Pump keeps nearly half of everything it touches. I am not sure there is another crypto business with these types of metrics right now.

2. Fees grew 8.8% over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the token fell 17.4% over the same timeframe. The market is pricing a growing business as if it's contracting. Typically, when you see a fee accelerating into a price decline, the price is usually the one that's wrong.

3. One bear case to watch: only 40% of the total supply is circulating, with an FDV of $1.32B ~ 2.46x the market cap. The counterargument is that the fully diluted math still holds: ~$905M annualized fees against $1.32B FDV is a sub-1.5x P/F on full dilution. If the business sustains its run rate, the supply schedule is technically priced in.

Pump is the speculative layer of attention on Solana. Every new narrative, every rotation, every meme that catches fire allows Pump to take its cut first. The TAM is human nature to speculate. There is no off switch for that.

I think if you believe in speculation and bull conditions returning to the markets, $PUMP is starting to look very enticing at these levels.