After a night of calm reflection, I still have some insights. Many people saw that chat log from last night, which was actually said in a very small group, so the data is real. Last night's state was very much like a gambler with only one coin left in a casino, seeing 18 consecutive 'big' rolls, yet still wanting to bet on 'small', or even a 'triple', fantasizing about a comeback. My friend always told me not to trust people who don't put money in. I never understood what that meant before. This time, taking advantage of the news trading for gg and aster, I'll write down my feelings. Even if I lose money, I have to gain some insight, even if it's expensive.
Everyone says gg has a good narrative, and I genuinely think it does. But gg's core problem is probably the lack of a market maker. There's no market maker to control and lock up chips, so as long as there's no positive news, it just keeps slowly bleeding, like the continuous decline before the contract listing, the continuous decline after the contract listing's pump, and the continuous decline after the spot listing. Large holders around me, whether in spot or contracts, hold almost 30% of the chips, which means the market maker won't have that many chips. So it evolved into a process of extreme slow bleeding leading to a multi-kill. So 'not putting money in' means you can't expect Binance to act as a market maker for this coin, to control chips and lines. They only guide market sentiment at appropriate times, whether it's because of sniping ping or scheduling. That's why spot trading was launched over the weekend, and why they waited a week for internal coordination of specific details before issuing the donation announcement. They just catered to the community, but they didn't step in as market makers. What's left is a game among retail investors. Retail investors only contribute buying power once, and don't sell, like Jiuyi, who is already the biggest 'build'. Plus, gg has repeatedly hurt those who bought at highs, so even a positive development of this magnitude, which would normally be an all-in opportunity, this time resulted in extreme negative feedback. The phrase 'not putting money in' is deeply ingrained.
Now, about aster. I believe those close to Binance or those close to them have heard Binance's determination countless times. I believe this coin has a market maker, otherwise it wouldn't have gone from 0.1 to 2.5. So this coin clearly has a market maker. Information gathered from various sources also confirms that the team has been continuously buying back chips. CZ's explicit call to buy this time actually created secondary market space, but it was so small that if you entered even a little late, you'd be trapped. Now it has even fallen back to CZ's cost. From a valuation perspective, directly comparing it to hype, given aster's real users/product level/TVL, it is absolutely overvalued; there's no such thing as undervaluation here. From a market feedback perspective, both Binance and CZ have now entered a 'Tacitus Effect', meaning no matter what they do or say, people think there must be a big problem with 1011, a huge hole, and they are now trying to cut retail investors to make up for it. We don't know exactly what happened, and we might not know the full truth until the very end, but the market is now full of negative feedback. So all narratives on BSC have entered a state of disbelief, not listening, and direct criticism. It will take a long time to repair this before it can enter a positive cycle again. TST in February, white cloth in March, then broccoli, continuously adjusting until September, half a year, before re-entering a positive cycle.
