Almanak (ALMANAK)

I can’t believe this disaster

the cursor of AGI for DeFi is sitting comfy at $6.3m FDV

this is obviously the cursor of RUG, lol https://t.co/rfEU0BRg5X

Is it really a skill issue when you DYOR and it still ends as a joke every time?

watching other projects you weren’t part of perform very well at TGE, while the one you believed in and committed to performs poorly, forces a difficult kind of reflection.

at some point, you begin to doubt yourself.

you question your choices and even your research, esp in InfoFi where being a small account means you can only focus on a few projects at a time if you want your contributions to amount to anything meaningful.

for example, after almanak, i’ve watched almost every other launch list at or above their presale price and held a solid range for at least 24 hours and wondered what went wrong with almanak🤣

using their presale price as a ref point ($0.09), the price moved;

- over 33% down even before community could claim at TGE ($0.09 to $0.06)
- over 74% down within 24hrs ($0.09 to $0.023)
- and over 84% down in less than 7days (currently ~$0.014)

that’s like a dip from the last dip, and another dip from the last dip, lol

and this lines up with what @waleswoosh pointed out this morning with his NFT bags; there often isn’t a real ‘dip’ after a narrative shift. Sometimes, it’s just a gradual move into a ‘slow rug’.

with almanak, there was a clear ‘trust’ shift.

anyway, we used to evaluate projects based on funds raised, team competence, product utility, its pmf potential, who is talking about the project, their revenue, and so on.

but these are JUST a reason to ‘believing in something’ which is simply a gamble and more often than not, doesn’t end well for some people.

as we move toward 2026,

what’s the best way to choose projects that don’t disappoint in the most alarming way?

and lastly, how do you deal with the emotional toll when you’ve chronically made the wrong choices?