Internet Computer (ICP)

$ICP has an official Mission 70 target: burn 20x more of its token by December '26. But is that possible in reality?

I pulled 5 years of on-chain data to check.

Some of what I found is bullish, some isn't. All of it is public and verifiable.

A thread 🧵

1/7 👇 https://t.co/Wk7wKvegQ9

Every number traceable to a public endpoint you can query yourself.

This thread is just the short version, so for context and data, read the full article.

Full article report on my Substack.

https://t.co/ofp5dBptoQ

2/7 👇

Here's the full burn history, Genesis to today.

The only spikes above target are Jan to Feb 2025, during the $BOB mining frenzy, when people burned cycles for a chance to mine a token.

Today's rate is ~3% of that peak, and 20x below the Mission 70 target.

3/7 👇 https://t.co/qA66l5PpvC

But here's what surprised me:

Storage, canisters and identity users grew straight THROUGH that bubble, and kept climbing after it popped.

Identity users barely moved during the spike, then grew 21.5% after.

The users aren't the bubble's echo.

4/7 👇 https://t.co/V5a8y0WTj7

One catch for the bulls: $ICP's measured inflation looks low, but 95M ICP of rewards are earned and unminted.

That's 17.2% of supply sitting as a claim that hasn't hit the ledger.

Low measured inflation here is partly deferred, not avoided.

5/7 👇

Read the full article here:

https://t.co/WF547doX5i

The tech works, but the customers don't exist yet.

Mission 70's supply cuts landed, but the demand side needs 20x more burn on a product that isn't live, with 5 months left in the year.

You don't have to take my word. The data's all public 👌

6/7 👇