Bitcoin (BTC)

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Reports indicate that Binance's top traders have a BTC long ratio exceeding 50%. This suggests that positions of large traders are gradually shifting towards a long bias. Especially in the futures market, the "top traders' long ratio" is one of the key indicators for measuring short‑term sentiment. Currently, there may be a transition from a short‑biased state back to capital flowing to the long side. On the other hand, if the long bias advances too rapidly, it could increase the risk of long liquidations. The crucial factors are how Open Interest (OI) is increasing and whether the Funding Rate is in an "overheated" or "healthy" regime. Going forward, whether the long dominance will be reinforced by spot demand (ETF inflows, Coinbase premium) may become the key to market continuity.

There is a remark that "Bitcoin interest is now below bear market levels (ビットコインへの関心がベアマーケット時以下)". In fact, looking at search trends, social media engagement, and retail investor participation rates, the current market is far from "enthusiasm". However, historically, the true early bullish phase often starts during a period when "no one is interested". In early 2020 and also in 2019, accumulation by large investors progressed amid pessimism and indifference. Even now, structural accumulation by ETFs, corporations, and long-term holders continues, and the widening gap between "price increase" and "general interest" is a very interesting situation. The market can move more sharply during a "recovery that no one believes" than when many become bullish.

This week's U.S. market is seeing a lot of macro data and Fed officials' statements, making it likely to be an important week for the Bitcoin market as well. Particular attention is on Wednesday's FOMC minutes. The market is probing whether the Fed will truly move toward a rate cut within the year, and there is a possibility that caution about prolonged monetary tightening will intensify again. Additionally, Thursday's PMI flash numbers, unemployment insurance claims, and the Fed's balance sheet are also important. If slowdown signals strengthen, it could lead to “rate‑cut expectations”, whereas a resurgence of inflation would leave the risk of rising rates. Recently, the Bitcoin market is highly sensitive not only to ETF flows and on‑chain data but also to “U.S. rates”, the “Dollar Index”, and “U.S. economic indicators”. This week, especially after the FOMC minutes, reactions in the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield, the Nasdaq, and the dollar market may sway BTC’s directional sentiment.

According to Darkfost @Darkfost_Coc, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded the worst‑class weekly outflow since early February. Amid growing panic across the market, BTC slipped below $60,000, and it is reported that about 13,000 BTC have left ETF‑related addresses over the past week. In particular, Ark Invest‑related ETFs alone saw outflows exceeding 4,000 BTC, amounting to roughly $1 billion in capital leaving the market. ETF flow is one of the most important spot‑demand indicators in the current Bitcoin market. It especially reflects US institutional investors’ risk tolerance and capital circulation, having a significant impact on market sentiment. On the other hand, there have been cases where, after large outflows, short covering and whale accumulation occurred, leading to a rebound. Going forward, a reversal of ETF flows, improvement in the Coinbase premium, and recovery of spot trading volume are likely to be key watch points.

According to Bull Theory @BullTheoryio, despite the advancement of the CLARITY Act, which is said to be one of the most bullish crypto bills in U.S. history, Bitcoin sharply fell. After the bill moved to the Senate’s full chamber voting stage, BTC dropped about $4,100. Its market cap decreased by roughly $80 billion, and positions totaling around $980 million were liquidated. The market is buzzing with the question "why did it fall despite such bullish material," but in reality the short‑term market is driven more by position imbalances, leveraged overheating, and macro risks than by the news itself. In particular, this time the lack of a tariff agreement at the China summit, combined with a long‑biased stance in a high‑open‑interest environment, likely triggered a cascade of profit‑taking and liquidations. While institutional progress is crucial in the medium to long term, it’s important to note that the short‑term market is prone to the "Sell the News" phenomenon, where good news leads to selling pressure.

According to G a a h @gaah_im, Bitcoin Cycle Momentum has recovered to the “Neutral” zone, within less than 5 points. This indicates that the previously persistent bearish momentum is gradually retreating, suggesting the market structure may be approaching a turning point. Especially in the Bitcoin market, the phase where momentum indicators return to Neutral is not a “complete end of bearishness,” but it tends to be perceived as a “selling pressure exhaust” or a “bottom formation phase.” Going forward, whether it is accompanied by an ETF flow recovery, improvement in Coinbase Premium, and an increase in spot volume will likely become a critical point for discerning a full‑fledged trend reversal.

According to Maartunn @JA_Maartun, a strong risk‑on stance has been observed in the Bybit market. The BTC Taker Buy/Sell Ratio surged to 19.89, indicating that market‑order buys far exceed market‑order sells. In other words, aggressive long participants are hammering market orders all at once. In the short term, strong upward pressure and the possibility of a short squeeze are conceivable. However, such an extreme skew tends to be accompanied by expanding volatility, so continued attention to Open Interest (OI) and the Funding Rate’s overheating is required.

Last week, there was a massive outflow of funds from the US spot Bitcoin ETP. This is the largest weekly outflow since the final week of January. The current Bitcoin market is at a point where “fund flow” is as important as price. In particular, ETF flows are being watched as a key indicator of US institutional investor demand. On the other hand, there have been cases in the past where, after large outflows, the market rebounded due to short covering or a recovery in spot demand. Going forward, the continuity of ETF flows and changes in the Coinbase premium are likely to become important.